If Mullah Omar is dead, then what comes next?

"Rewards for Justice Mullah Omar" by Khalid Hadi - http://www.rewardsforjustice.net/english/mullah_omar.html. Via Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rewards_for_Justice_Mullah_Omar.png#/media/File:Rewards_for_Justice_Mullah_Omar.png
Rewards for Justice Mullah Omar” by Khalid Hadi 

If it is true that Mullah Omar died in Pakistan in 2013 then there are some pretty serious consequences:

  1. What happens to peace talks? Things were ticking along in the right direction. The crucial issue was always what does Mullah Omar want? And there was a clear feeling that credible negotiators could do nothing without his say so. So what if Omar is dead…? Can peace talks survive?
  2. The Taliban’s coalition of militias essentially held together over two issues: Loyalty to Mullah Omar and opposition to US troops in Afghanistan. If Omar is dead, can the Taliban hold together… particularly when the well-financed Islamic State is trying to attract converts…?
  3. Who sent Mullah Omar’s last few Eid messages? Given that diplomats in Islamabad believed the ISI was able to get a line to the leader of the Taliban when it needed to, it will reinforce the idea that Pakistan has been the hidden hand behind the group

Update… on reflection


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s