Brave Thinking on Darfur

I’ve long admired the work of Alex de Waal, reseacher, author and all round Sudanophile. His work has influenced a lot of my thinking on Darfur and helped me draw my own conclusions on this miserable conflict, thoughts which I’ve distilled into a book (now due to be published in February). However his clear-sighted analysis has often turned him into something of a hate figure for the self-appointed saviours of Darfur.  So it’s nice to see him lauded as a Brave Thinker… for his warnings in connection with the ICC indictments

De Waal warned that al-Bashir was likely to react violently, that rebel groups would be emboldened to violate hard-won peace agreements, that the ICC had no way to enforce its indictment, and that the whole thing would be a spectacle for the benefit of Western audiences and would only further destabilize the country. Sure enough, when al-Bashir’s warrant was issued in March, Sudan shut down human-rights groups and international aid agencies (including Oxfam and Save the Children), seized their assets, and declared, “For us, the ICC doesn’t exist.”

2 thoughts on “Brave Thinking on Darfur

  1. Hi Rob,

    Keep up he good work, I’m following you on Twitter which has its limitations, so I’m looking forwards to receiving your updates.

    Best wishes.



  2. The ICC pops up in the four 2012 scenarios in this recent paper. In one scenario, the NCP makes its participation in a Sudanese government of national unity conditional on the withdrawal of ICC warrants. The international community cannot understand how such a compromise can be made. It is a maddenly realistic possibility.

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