Postcards from Hell: 10. The Vimto Factor

Foreign Policy’s Failed States index is slightly more sensible this year, although it still rather resembles a random list of shitty countries. At least Pakistan is down to number 12, dropping below Guinea and the Central African Republic.

Maybe this year they have added the soft drinks index to their calculus. Broadly stated, this is based on the truism – well known to students of international diplomacy – that two countries that drink Vimto have never been to war with each other.

Basically, your standard failed state is defined by the availability of only two soft drinks – Coke and Fanta. Such is the ubiquity of Coca Cola that aid groups are even trying to work out how they can piggyback on its distribution systems to deliver medicine, vaccines or mosquito nets.

Anyway, when I potter down to my local shops there is a lot more on offer than Coke or Fanta. Living high on the hog, as I do, I have been able to buy cans of Tizer, fizzy Vimto and even Bass shandy (a terrible waste of a fine beer). Once again, conclusive evidence that Pakistan is not a failed state.

(Although maybe not as cool as Ethiopia, where I was served a fruit salad drizzled with Vimto.)

Postcards from Hell is my ironically titled list of things that are cool about Pakistan, my new home, or which contradict the notion that the country is some sort of failed state

ICC Arrest Warrant for Gaddafi

A big victory for the human rights campaigners yesterday, as the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued arrest warrants for Colonel Gaddafi and two of his key lieutenants.

“Justice must be delivered to the victims of serious human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law committed in Libya during and following the brutal repression of pro-reform protests earlier this year,” said Michael Bochenek, Director of Law and Policy at Amnesty International. “Al-Gaddafi and others who are accused of orchestrating this bloody crackdown must be held to account.”

But of course it’s rather more complicated than that. Libya is not a signatory to the Treaty of Rome. Nor does the ICC have a police force ready to parachute into Tripoli to arrest the suspect. So far the ICC has failed to convict a single criminal and remains a long way from nabbing President Omar al Bashir, the other wanted head of state.

It remains unclear whether the ICC warrants will speed an end to the war by accelerating the breakup of the regime, through the isolation of the Gaddafis, or will deepen its defiance by cutting off lines of retreat. Gaddafi spokesman Moussa Ibrahim on Monday shrugged off the arrest warrants, saying, “The ICC has no legitimacy whatsoever. We will deal with it.”

The real question is what it does for the chances of a negotiated settlement. Jacob Zuma has been trying to broker a deal, but what sort of deal can you offer a wanted man? Imagine if the British police had tried to arrest Martin McGuinness during the Good Friday negotiations…

“President Zuma is extremely disappointed and concerned over the issuing of a warrant by the International Criminal Court against Colonel Gaddafi,” presidential spokesman Zizi Kodwa said.

“It’s unfortunate that the ICC could take such a decision while the AU through its ad hoc committee has done so much. Progress so far signals that there’s a commitment now from both the Libyan authority led by Colonel Gaddafi and the Transitional National Council.”

While the warrants may have legitimised the air campaign against him, it has also backed the Libyan leader even further into a corner.

On his refusal to budge, Gaddafi has been entirely consistent from the outset and, because he has nowhere to go and because the ICC has effectively branded him an international outlaw, it seems implausible to believe he will change his mind now. The ICC has added its weight to attempts to corner Gaddafi. But cornered, he is rendered all the more dangerous.

Once again, the defenders of human rights can claim a victory – but one that will mean nothing if it’s main consequence is to prolong the war.

A Religious Conversion

Not really much to say about the new decoration for bus stops in Islamabad…

The spokesman for the authority said it was part of the drive to give the capital “a more creative and Islamic look

Nice. And if it’s a creative attempt to stamp out graffiti by bringing the blasphemy laws into play it’s inspired, but I can’t help but think it’s about as tasteful as those Pope John Paul II lollipops.

Ayman al-Zawahiri

Stuff I’ve been reading since Ayman al-Zawahiri took over as emir of al-Qaeda

• Zawahiri at the Helm – Lawrence Wright says al-Qaeda will now turn its focus back towards Eygpt, at a crucial time in the country’s history
• Osama bin Laden a ‘ranting chief executive’ – how the relationship between leader and deputy deteriorated
• The 5 Habits of Highly Effective Terrorist Organisations – management lessons for the new world’s most wanted man
• Dr. al-Zawahiri, I Presume: The Hunt Begins for al-Qaeda’s New Boss – Let’s hope it doesn’t take another 10 years
• Al-Qaeda’s delayed announcement – Leah Farrall says delayed announcement was result of security concerns and administrative changes, not splits
• Can the world’s new Dr Evil really be that happy at his promotion? – “I’d prefer to be Ed Miliband right now than Ayman al-Zawahiri”

Let Them Eat Cake

So you have a big Union Flag cake to mark the Queen’s 85th birthday and invite Shahbaz Sharif, chief minister of the Punjab, to cut it for you. So far so good. But then he comes towards you with a forkful of the thing, clearly intent on feeding you in public… and in sight of the cameras.

What do you do?

Well if you are Her Majesty’s representative in Pakistan, the unflappable Adam Thomson, you accept it all in good humour. But I’d love to know what he was thinking. (And I look forward to the pic being trotted out at inappropriate moments in future.)

US Getting Public Diplomacy Wrong in Pakistan

The Americans say all the right sort of things in public, the gentle words that Pakistan wants to hear. They are here for the long haul. They want to rebuild trust. Of course they will work with Pakistan’s security forces on high-profile targets in future.

On the other hand, they are still sifting through the Abbottabad files for evidence of Pakistan state collusion with bin Laden. They won’t rule further unilateral exercises on Pakistani soil. And so far the only intelligence sharing appears to be a not-very opaque ruse to smoke out moles.

Now its Robert Gates, who is nearing the end of his time as US Defense Secretary, who trots out the line in an interview with AP:

Asked whether it was time to take a harder line with Pakistan, Gates counseled patience and noted that the Pakistanis have not forgotten that the U.S. abandoned them in the late 1980s after the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan.

“We need each other, and this relationship goes beyond Afghanistan,” he said. “It has to do with regional stability, and I think we have to be realistic about Pakistani distrust … and their deep belief that when we’re done with al-Qaida that we’ll be gone, again.”

But the tragic case of Ibad Ejaz-ur-Rehman, mown down by a US vehicle in Lahore suggests that America has only one interest in Pakistan – its own.

A Bold Analysis of the Trouble with Pakistan

Pakistan is many things. A country where terrorists plot attacks against Europe, where a brewery founded by British soldiers produces beer, where software developers top the download charts, where tomorrow’s fast bowlers run through their paces on grass verges, where a Christian woman guilty of blasphemy waits on death row, and where supposedly educated lawyers try to ban Facebook. All countries are a mess of contradictions, but nowhere is it quite so difficult to pin down the essence of a country as Pakistan.

Maybe it comes from religion. Or maybe religion divides as much as it unites. Maybe it is cricket, albeit a team that disappoints almost as much as its politicians. Or maybe it is a country that is united only in its fear and hatred of India.

Some of these themes are on display in Shoaib Mansoor’s latest film Bol, a bold analysis of contemporary Pakistan’s relationship with religion, its attitude to women and the painful tensions that so frequently erupt in violence (just read the national newspapers).

A new baby is born into the Lahori family of daughters dominated by a pious, conservative father. As it becomes clear that the much anticipated son is actually an intersex baby, the relationship between father and family breaks down, precipitating a series of crises that escalate in a narrative told by Bol, the eldest daughter, as she stands on the gallows, a noose above her head, reciting her story all the way to its inevitable, bloody conclusion.

The daughters, already shut off from the world until the day they are married off, dream of how their lives might be in the outside world. But at each turn their domineering father, and his outdated view of respect and religion, thwarts their attempts to be free. The tension grows until it all unravels in a mess of betrayal and lies exposed, just as you know it will from the clever way the plot unfolds. Even the father’s faith collapses as he desperately, hypocritically tries to claw his way out of trouble. Or maybe he was never a man of faith – just a man who didn’t want to lose face.

This is a brave film that will spark all sorts of debate about where modern Pakistan is headed. No doubt the debates will be had by the elites educated overseas and played out in the op-ed pages of the English-language newspapers. The people who need to see this film will probably steer clear.

Some of the music was on the cheesy side, the picture could have been 30 minutes shorter and a bleaker, starker ending would have been more satisfying – but I suspect that’s not how Lollywood films are made.

A powerful examination of the trouble with Pakistan.

What’s In My Kit Bag, 2011 edition

Back on the road as my Arab spring turns to summer. So here’s what I’ve brought with me:

1. Timbuk2 laptop bag: tough, hard-wearing and looks pretty cool. Didn’t fancy the flourescent courier-style bag, so I got this classic canvas one instead. After more than three years though it’s showing its age and the external pockets are falling apart (they are dodgy anyway – had a Thuraya pinched from one in Sudan)
2. NorthFace duffel bag: also showing its age. Problem is that it’s too big, so tendency to overpack. But easy to spot on luggage carousel
3. Three mobile phones: My BlackBerry tends to pack up after three days of roaming because of useless Pakistani mobile network. So I have a UK pay as you go (expensive, but at least I can keep topping up), and a spare for a local sim card
4. Noise cancelling earphones: means you don’t have to turn your iPod up to 10 on flights. Easy to lose though. My third set in three months
5. iPod classic: I’m clearly behind the times as I can’t buy a case for it. IPod Touch, no problem, but nothing for this model. Ideal for Safari Soundtracks and keeping up to date with The Archers
6. Flip camera: bought in a multimedia frenzy, but so far rarely used in anger
7. Palm Tx: used Palm for about 10 years. These days I suppose everyone keeps all their contacts on their phone. It’s one more thing to carry, but I find its diary and address book to be easy to use – and vital
8. Torch: have headtorch somewhere too
9. Sony tape recorder: uses tapes and batteries. Ideal for the Third World. Noodlepie no doubt has a fusion-powered iPad app for recording interviews. But what happens if the hard drive breaks down in the middle of The Congo, eh?
10. Thuraya: sat phone essential for comms in many places. These newer handsets are rubbish though. Battery life terrible and lots of complicated menus. It also won’t work with my Laptop (windows 7, 64 bit) so I can’t use it for email or browsing
11. Foxes Glacier Fruits: to suck on long road trips. These have wrappers so they don’t melt into one fruity lump, making them an innovation Werthers Originals also a good option as you can find them in dusty Darfuri grocery stores
12. Lenovo ThinkPad Edge: at 13 inches it’s a nice size to carry, but big enough to type fast. Everything else about it is rubbish though. Bought it because of its reputation for sturdy build. But the screen has developed a fault, I’m on to my second hard drive and it’s incompatible with lots of hardware – and apparently software. (Apple fans bugger off – before you get started – and get back to buying things you don’t need)
13. Hat: for my head
14. Lonely Planet: you’re never too cool for a guidebook. Potted histories are also more useful than any foreign correspondent will ever admit
15. Canon PowerShot A620: tend to find that Canon cameras take the best pictures. I’d rather buy one from a camera manufacturer than a general electronics company
16. Binoculars: essential for those, erm, celebrity stories
17. First aid kit: The Telegraph’s standard issue kit has some frankly frightening things in it. And also a torch that clips behind your ear. Cool
18. Leatherman: for opening beer bottles and removing stones from horses hooves etc

Next week I’ll tell you what I’ve forgotten

Rice

Went shopping in Rawalpindi. Didn’t buy anything. Too much choice. Well, too much choice if it’s rice you want. Have no idea what varieties these are, but they were all grown in Pakistan. Nice.

The Drones Work

Erm, so this is awkward. On Saturday morning The Wall Street Journal runs a story on splits within the US administration over drone strikes, with the American ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, or his friends, briefing that he is among those wanting a slow-down, to mollify Pakistani anger at the raids…

U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter, backed by top military officers and other State Department officials, wants the strikes to be more judicious, and argues that Pakistan’s views need to be given greater weight if the fight against militancy is to succeed, said current and former U.S. officials.

Even before the printing presses rolled, missiles slammed into targets in South Waziristan. Locals said America’s new most wanted terrorist, Ilyas Kashmiri, al-Qaeda’s “military brain” was among the dead. If true, his death will have a significant impact on al-Qaeda and regional stability.

There’s still a degree of doubt about whether he is actually dead. With the bodies taken away and buried immediately, it usually takes days to confirm who was killed. But I wonder if Cameron Munter might not feel a little silly if the drones have taken out another murderous terrorist.