Monitoring the Sudanese Elections

The Carter Center: ” it is apparent that the elections will fall short of meeting international standards and Sudan’s obligations for genuine elections in many respects. Nonetheless, the elections are important as a key benchmark in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and because of the increased political and civic participation that has occurred over the last several months

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development: “Taking into account that the Sudan is undertaking a massive exercise for the first time in 24 years, the vast size of the country and the challenges of infrastructure, our preliminary assessment is that the election process was credible. This is in view of promoting a peaceful and democratic transformation of the country. The Mission observed that the NEC was overwhelmed by the magnitude of the work and the resulting technical problems. Notwithstanding the unexpected workload, it made all efforts to rectify the situation for the process to proceed.”

The European Union: “The election process suffered from unprecedented complexity in its design and, consequently, from confusion in its implementation. The campaign was dominated by the two ruling parties. In the north reduced competition came from a late withdrawal of the opposition and diminished expectations. In the south there was greater competition but a less controlled environment leading to more confusion, clashes and intimidation. However these elections have shown the interest of the Sudanese people in entering upon democratic transformation.”

Sudanese Civil Society: “All these failures led to the corruption of the election process and opened the door wide to malpractice and fraud. The overarching theme of the current elections is one of severe moral and professional failure by the NEC which impaired its management of fair and free elections.”

African Union: “…the elections constitute an important milestone in the country’s democratisation process. Given Sudan’s history, its current and immense challenges on many fronts, the just-completed elections though imperfect are historic and are building-block for the future elections.”

The consensus seems to be that the elections were flawed but they still constitute an important step in Sudan’s democratic transition. As a benchmark in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, they were crucial to the survival of Sudan itself. Comments about the vigour of an emerging civil society are particularly encouraging. However, there is no doubt that there could only be one winner from such a flawed process. No-one is under any illusions that this was a model election. That has led to a vocal round of criticism.

US Slams Irregularities in Sudan Election: “Political rights and freedoms were circumscribed throughout the electoral process, there were reports of intimidation and threats of violence in South Sudan, ongoing conflict in Darfur did not permit an environment conducive to acceptable elections, and inadequacies in technical preparations for the vote resulted in serious irregularities,” the White House said in a statement.

Save Darfur: “Reports by the Carter Center and European Union election observation missions make clear the Sudanese election was not conducted under conditions that were free and fair and which reflect the true will of the Sudanese people,” said Mark Lotwis, Acting President of the Save Darfur Coalition. “The Obama administration must lead the world in condemning this election as illegitimate and that Omar al-Bashir is not a legitimately elected leader.”

The Ugly Election: “The ugly result of the election was determined long ago by the material forces that have driven Sudanese political life for the best part of forty years.”

How to Write About China in Africa

KHARTOUM OR SOMEWHERE SIMILAR OR IN FACT VERY DIFFERENT: First up is to pick your major, billion-dollar infrastructure project built by the Chinese. Ideally it will involve oil processing, pumping, prospecting or some such. Failing that, a dam, road or power station will do the trick – but at the very least make sure it has a red lantern hanging from it. (A Chinese restaurant will not past muster.)

This is Africa remember, so the next par should contrast the shiny new oil processing plant with the backwards land all around. Mention the Nile, pyramids, Masai warriors, starving children, Aids, camels, the Congo, cradle of humanity, Jacob Zuma’s wives etc. This year, you have the added bonus of being able to mention the World Cup. For British papers you get a bonus for mentioning Livingston, Gordon of Khartoum or any other Victorian hero.

“Ah yes,” chuckled Mohammed, as he washed his cattle in the waters of the mighty Nile beneath the hot African sun, “by par three you need a quote. So make sure you find a simple local man engaged in a traditional task who can tell you that the Chinese are coming and how he would like a job in the new oil plant so he can sell his cows and buy a Land Cruiser, insh’Allah.”

With the local scene set, it is time to assume that the rest of the continent is much the same as the patch around the luxury hotel where you have vox popped three locals and found your Chinese project. The presence of a new road or oil plant is sufficient to declare a fresh “Scramble for Africa”. It’s OK if you miss this exact phrase as the subs will add it in for you.

So far so good, but this is Africa and we need a healthy dose of fear, despair and human rights abuses in order not to leave our reader confused and disorientated. Thankfully there is a whole industry of commentators in London, Washington and New York employed to condemn China and reinforce stereotypes. “China’s rapacious demand for resources is harming all the excellent work done by well-intentioned Western donors,” said a man who has never been to Sudan. “China is propping up dictators and despots by building roads and buying oil. They have no regard for human rights, undermining our own efforts to topple their leader.”

You may be tempted at this point to introduce some examples of development aid driven by Western donors by way of comparison. Don’t. Those are generally best forgotten. However, by this stage most people will have turned the page so feel free to improvise. Ideally quote a fat local politician proclaiming his fondness of the Chinese because their money doesn’t come with strings. But leave the reader in no doubt about whether or not this is a good thing by ending on either a description of the politician’s shiny Mercedes or the cattle-washing local who has no chance of ever buying that car.

Anyway, all of this is to say that there is another way of seeing China’s role in Africa.

And a massive debt of gratitude to the excellent Inanitites (and it goes without saying Binyavanga Wainana)

Beware Copy-Cat Piracy

The House of Lords has published its report into Somali piracy, examining specifically the success of EU Operation Atalanta, and is available here. I find myself elsewhere these days so haven’t ploughed through its pages. I’m sure there’s some tasty nuggets in there. In the meantime the conclusions do seem to take a rather optimistic view about the impact of the mission, but do also make a serious point about tackling problems on land and trying to shift the current risk-to-reward ratio from its rather lucrative position.

There will be no solution to the problem of piracy without a solution to the root causes of the conflict on land in Somalia. We support the EU’s efforts to deal with Somalia’s problems by building up the security sector in line with democratic norms, providing humanitarian assistance and assisting the authorities in Somaliland and Puntland to strengthen their coastguards.
If the piracy problems of the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean are not robustly tackled, there will be copy-cat piracy elsewhere on the world’s shipping lanes adjacent to failed states or regions where a government’s writ fails to reach

Sudan Election Stuff

Quick round up of Sudan election relatedish things…

Polling Day and A Complex Election – Hafiz Mohammed on how there’s simply not enough hours in the day to fill in the dastardly complex ballot papers

When is an election boycott not an election boycott? When it takes place in Sudan

Rigged Elections in Darfur and the Consequences of a Probable NCP Victory in Sudan – The International Crisis Group’s verdict

SUDAN VOTES MUSIC HOPES Trailer – it aint Things Can Only Get Better, thankfully

Sudan’s election: Let those people go – “despite all these flaws, it is to be hoped that it will go ahead. If it does, the outside world should hold its nose and accept the result. For the election could lead to progress on one front in a country that is pitifully short of the stuff: it could result in a peaceful division of Sudan between north and south.”

wars aren’t pointless – Texas in Africa sums up debate over Geoffrey Gettleman’s Forever Wars argument. I’m with Gettleman

Bashir and the ICC

My opinion piece is running in The Daily Telegraph today. It is a round-up of the thesis in my book but also points out, with an election days away for which Bashir is a shoo-in, how the international campaign has backfired. This is likely to be the most contentious claim…

Then, last year, the campaign won its second big victory, when the ICC issued a warrant for the arrest of Bashir on war crimes charges. But that, too, is backfiring. Before he was indicted, Bashir told regional leaders and his confidantes that he was ready to step down: after 20 years in office, he was ready for a holiday, and retirement to a smart new villa in the north of Khartoum. Now, fearing arrest by a new regime, he has promised his inner circle that he will fight on. He is not a man to bow to pressure – nor is he the monster of popular imagination. He is certainly a war criminal, but he has shown that he can be pragmatic, as when he signed a ceasefire with rebels in the south in 2005.

I’ve been sitting on this for a while and have debated it several times with different Darfur watchers. It came from three different sources, including Bashir’s inner circle and, second-hand, via a head of state. It may be that he was never going to step down. It is impossible to know exactly what would have happened in different circumstances. However, the sources I spoke to are rock solid on this and I believe it’s another example of how going to the International Criminal Court was a mistake. Bashir has no choice now but to fight on.

My Pakistan Reading List

I move to Islamabad on Wednesday to become The Telegraph’s Pakistan correspondent. Here is my current reading list:

• In the Line of Fire by Pervez Musharraf – currently still sitting in a warehouse somewhere, and I fear this won’t arrive in time
• A Case of Exploding Mangoes by Mohammed Hanif – novels tend to have a way of getting under the skin of a place that isn’t always possible in non-fiction. Started this last night
• Descent into Chaos by Ahmed Rashid – one of Pakistan’s top journalists gets two places on my list
• Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia by Ahmed Rashid – supposed to be one of the best books on the Taliban
• On the Road to Kandahar by Jason Burke – read this last year. Great introduction to the region
• Afghan Frontier by Victoria Schofield – long-time friend of Benazir Bhutto, who has written loads of books on the place
• Ghost Wars by Steve Coll - the inside story of 9/11 and the aftermath. Spooks galore
• Flashman in the Great Game by George Macdonald Fraser – I somehow suspect this will be the first one I read

Any other recommendations?

What’s Going on in Sudan?

Confusing and depressing news from Sudan, where the main opposition parties have withdrawn their candidates for this month’s presidential election, following the SPLM’s decision to withdraw last night.

There is no doubt the elections will not be free and fair. The International Crisis Group report earlier this week made clear that the rigging had already been done. So maybe the opposition is boycotting the ballot to draw attention to the flawed process.

However, where Sudanese politics is concerned you can be sure that few actors are making decisions based on principle. The real reasons remain shrouded in mystery. Anyone who tells you they know what is going on is a fool.

So I’ll speculate: For my money, there is something pretty shabby going on.

• The NCP of President Bashir needs to win the presidential elections. A resounding victory is the best way of heading off the International Criminal Court and cementing Bashir’s shaky legitimacy.
• The SPLM doesn’t want the presidency of a united Sudan. It wants the referendum next January and secession.

This way both sides get way they want – while the Sudanese people wonder what sort of democracy it is that leaves them with bit parts in the political process.

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